Is it Time to Rethink Sovereign Debt?

Hypothetical News: “…Traders around the world today began to sell all of the USA’s  military assets after a devastating terrorist attack removed confidence in the nation’s ability to protect itself.  In other news, a patient who may become terminally ill in the next few weeks has had all treatment ceased as doctors do not wish to invest any more medical-capital into a patient who only has a sixty percent chance of survival…”

On the face of it, both of these hypothetical events are reprehensible.  The first because it effectively removes any ability for a nation to defend its citizens against a threat, and the second because it effectively writes off a patient as ‘dead’ without having tried all available opportunities.

Financial Life Support

Sovereign debt (usually in the form of government bonds) are one of the two key methods governments use to raise money (the other being taxes).  In the absence of a kleptocracy, this money is then used to fund everything from education and health, to infrastructure, defence, culture and more.  In the UK, sovereign debt pays for our free healthcare, defends our population here and abroad, provides education for millions, economic opportunity for millions more, and provides us the infrastructure we need to go about our daily lives.  In developing economies- this same debt lifts hundreds of millions out of poverty and hunger, and provides (alongside international aid) the capital to give billions a chance to engage with the global economy. Continue reading

The Risks and Opportunities of Unforeseen ‘Black swan’ Market Events

Guest article written for AllAboutAlpha.com – the official publication of the  Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) Association

originally posted at: http://allaboutalpha.com/blog/2011/06/27/the-risks-and-opportunities-of-unforeseen-black-swan-market-events/

The precipitous market-collapse which began the 2007 financial crisis was considered to be a ‘once in a thousand year’ event.  Similar ‘not in our lifetime’ rarity was also assigned to the events which followed including the failures of large financial institutions, global contagion, market interventions and (more recently) potential sovereign defaults throughout europe.  All these events (on the left tail of a probability distribution) are united by their consequences- typically so severe that the very survival of financial systems, frameworks and portfolios are at risk.

Looking at our perception of such events, Mark Spitznagel, Founder and CIO of Universa Investments (who, according to reliable news-sources, have over US$6bn under management) states, “…people like to compare such rare payoffs to lottery tickets. This is way off. We know from the availability heuristic that people overestimate the likelihood of an event based on their ability to envision it—the risk of plane crash versus car crash is the best example of this. Holding that big check is easy to conjure up, but rare, deep stock market corrections not so much most of the time.”

Universa Investments help clients by providing solutions to hedge their investments against left-tail risk.  Alongside this, they manage a range of funds which are designed to seek alpha by hunting out these rare market events (based on the principal that markets have a positive skew, and therefore will generate small losses often, and occasional large gains).  Continue reading

The Role of Film in Society

In this exclusive interview we talk to Tom Sherak, President of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (best known for their Academy Awards, also referred to as “Oscars”). We look at the role of film in society and how it has grown to become such a ubiquitous art. We discuss what makes a ‘great’ movie, some history of film, the economics and future of the industry, and how the internet and other technologies such as CGI and 3D have affected the movie business.

http://thoughteconomics.blogspot.com/2011/06/role-of-film-in-society.html

Blowing bubbles and capturing them in real time

In a recent paper entitled, “How to Detect an Asset Bubble” Jarrow, Kchia and Protter state that, “...After the 2007 credit crisis, Financial bubbles have once again emerged as a topic of current concern. An open problem is to determine in real time whether or not a given asset’s price process exhibits a bubble. Due to recent progress in the characterization of asset price bubbles using the arbitrage-free martingale pricing technology, we are able to propose a new methodology for answering this question based on the asset’s price volatility.”

Their theory combines a range of sophisticated models based on three parts of mathematics:

  • Firstly Brownian motion, which looks (in essence) at the motion of a particle (say, a specific instrument within an asset class) who’s behaviour takes a random walk with random step sizes (Wiener process)
  • Secondly Stochastic modelling (treating the system as a martingale process) which is commonly used in derivative pricing (and gambling) and uses probability to understand the likely overall outcome of a ‘system’
  • Thirdly Hilbert Spaces which allow the researchers to create a “theatre” to model a system.  So for example, if you have an equation which describes how a particular instrument correlates against variable ‘a’ and another which describes how it correlates against variable ‘b’ then plotted the maxima of these in a chart, the space between the lines is the ‘hilbert space’ for those variables. Continue reading
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